Systemic shocks resulting from extreme weather represent a "gray rhino"—a highly probable yet often overlooked threat lurking within global supply chains. Historical data shows that extreme weather events disrupt global commodity markets by triggering a chain reaction: supply-side contraction → abnormal commodity price movements → restructuring of market supply-demand dynamics. Current conditions—characterized by persistent high volatility in commodity markets, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the onset of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle—combined with policy and climate catalysts, will create diverse market opportunities.

According to NOAA monitoring data, there is an 82% probability of an El Niño event occurring between May and July 2026, extending into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–2027; notably, there is a 96% probability that the event will maintain high intensity from December 2026 through February 2027. Domestic meteorological authorities forecast this to be an "Eastern-Pacific type" El Niño of moderate-to-high intensity. Consequently, the frequency of extreme heat, persistent flooding, and severe drought is expected to rise sharply, with climate volatility significantly exceeding historical norms. From a meteorological perspective, the core cause of El Niño is an anomalous rise in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. By restructuring trans-regional atmospheric circulation, it directly impacts the agricultural belts of Southeast Asia; key producing nations such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand face prolonged periods of high temperatures and drought. This region accounts for over 80% of global palm oil production capacity and more than 60% of natural rubber capacity. Production of both crops is highly dependent on local climate conditions, resulting in low supply resilience and high vulnerability to drought.

CTA trend-following strategies rely on three core conditions for profitability: high volatility, directional trends, and low reversal frequency. As the production cuts driven by El Niño materialize with a time lag—with the actual impact on palm oil and rubber likely peaking in the first half of 2027—commodity markets are poised for a trend shift from "expectation-based trading" to "reality-based trading." Major upward price movements for key commodities like palm oil and rubber typically establish themselves after the harvest season and the peak of the weather event, rather than immediately upon the event's onset; this suggests that the period from the second half of 2026 to early 2027 may offer significant opportunities for trend-following strategies. Furthermore, the structural divergence between commodities caused by El Niño creates an ideal environment for cross-sectional CTA strategies, allowing for risk hedging and profit generation by going long on commodities facing supply contraction (e.g., palm oil) and short on those benefiting from bumper harvests (e.g., soybean oil).